Beat the Markets
People put real money on what happens to the Islamic Republic. Make your own call on each question, then come back when it closes and see whether you read it better than the money did.
How a call scores
- 20%Back a 20% long shot and it comes in: +80. Miss: −20.
- 80%Back an 80% favorite and it comes in: +20. Miss: −80.
Your calls stay in this browser, on this device: no account, nothing is sent to anyone. A market link opens Polymarket or Kalshi, sites that are not ours.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$79.9M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Who is head of state in Iran at the end of 2026?
$41.1M traded on Polymarket · Closes 31 December 2026 · See the market
Will the regime in Iran fall before 2027?
$29.8M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$17.7M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Will Prince Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
$11.9M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Iran leadership change by December 31?
$6.2M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
$6.2M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
$4.5M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Will Prince Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
$2.8M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
$2.7M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
$2.7M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
The Islamic Republic agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
$2.7M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
$2.6M traded on Polymarket · Closes 16 November 2026 · See the market
The Islamic Republic agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$2.2M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
$2M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 December 2026 · See the market
Iran Nuke before 2027?
$1.6M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
$1.4M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
$1M traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Will the US officially declare war on the Islamic Republic by December 31, 2026?
$908K traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
$885K traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 December 2026 · See the market
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
$842K traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
$811K traded on Polymarket · Closes 31 December 2026 · See the market
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
$726K traded on Kalshi · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
US recognizes Prince Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
$686K traded on Polymarket · Closes 1 January 2027 · See the market
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.32B traded on Polymarket · Closes 8 November 2028 · See the market
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$739.3M traded on Polymarket · Closes 8 November 2028 · See the market
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$734M traded on Polymarket · Closes 8 November 2028 · See the market
Who wins the Alaska Senate race?
$12.8M traded on Kalshi · Closes 4 January 2027 · See the market
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
$6.2M traded on Kalshi · Closes 1 February 2027 · See the market
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
$2.7M traded on Polymarket · Closes 8 November 2028 · See the market
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
$2.7M traded on Kalshi · Closes 1 February 2027 · See the market
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
$2.4M traded on Kalshi · Closes 1 February 2027 · See the market
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Prices as read 12 November 2026, 06:30 UTC. From Polymarket and Kalshi, read every hour on Liberty Politics; this page carries the prices of the day it was published.
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