Scenarios
Three conflicts on a 3D map. Replay what already happened, day by day, from the reporting. Then pick your advisors, choose the moves, and run what could come next 1,000 times.
The Islamic Republic, the US and IsraelWhat happens next with the Islamic RepublicReplay the Twelve-Day War and the 2026 war from the reporting, then run what comes next: who moves first, who joins, what they aim at.6 events to replay · 12 advisorsOpen the Iran scenario
Russia and UkraineWhere things go next in UkraineMove the front line in Ukraine. Set the aid, the drones, the offensives and the talks, and see where the line ends up.11 events to replay · 13 advisorsOpen the Ukraine scenario
China and TaiwanIf China moves on TaiwanA quarantine, a blockade or an invasion. Decide what the US and Japan do, and see if Taiwan holds.9 events to replay · 14 advisorsOpen the Taiwan scenario
Everything on the maps comes from published reporting, each with its page. The advisors' numbers are my reading of their published analysis. A model to think with, not a forecast. Satellite imagery: NASA.
Who makes the next move, and how does it end?
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The scenarios
All discussions, from every page
Discussion
Scenarios
Your own scenario, an advisor I should add, or a fact on a map I have wrong. Bring the source if you have one. Readers' words, not mine.
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